Just eight weeks in the past that the Villa attacker found himself on the Sunderland turf, appearing bewildered while the Villa manager berated him for missing a pass in behind. At that point, as the club failed to win in six, doubts remained whether his performances were a sign or the reason for Villa's broader struggles.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
In the latest match, though, the sideline response was decidedly more positive. As the England international swept in his second to restore Villa's lead, the boss ripped off his coat, threw his arms wide and bellowed. The Birmingham club were on their way to ten wins in a row , having failed to win their opening six games, are somehow only three points adrift of the leaders Arsenal.
Are They Legitimate Hopefuls?
It remains a rather hard question to address. Past precedent, a general sense of this institution, indicates otherwise. Furthermore, they have not been completely commanding this season, despite the fact the victories have stacked up.
As per the data, twice all season has the side had an xG notably superior than the opposition. For a team which has put together ten consecutive victories, Villa seem strangely fragile – however currently the tight outcomes are swinging for them.
The Reliant Strategy
The prevailing tactic seems to be to exchange chances with an opponent and then rely on Rogers to save the day with two crisp finishes. It happened at Leeds, it happened against West Ham, and again versus the Red Devils.
The initial strike originated from a brilliant finish, curled right inside the goal frame from the edge of the area. His brace-completing goal acted as a slight scruffier version of his first as he pounced on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
Is It Sustainable?
Common sense dictates no. In the recent win, Manchester United registered more shots and more shots on target. Villa have secured their last eight victories by a single goal. They have allowed goals in all but one of those matches.
Regression to the mean could be the biggest rival they will encounter over the coming weeks. Rogers, almost certainly, cannot keep on thrashing his shots into the top corner indefinitely.
A Case for Belief
Perhaps there is an alternative path whereby, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, performances begin to trend towards results. Key players could still find their top level.
- The centre-forward might resume finding the net regularly.
- The attacking talent could transform into the performer he resembled in Germany.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are set to come back from the treatment room, fortifying a sometimes shaky defensive unit.
Maybe within that lies the potential of a genuine bid, yet it seems unlikely can persist in leaning entirely on one man.
Enjoying the Ride
Yet, this was unforeseen. Nobody thought Villa would be in a Champions League place in December. And without a doubt back in October, nobody thought the young forward now would be spearheading a title charge while establishing himself as a vital England player.
The current run is to be savoured for the very reason that it feels so unlikely. When the match-winner faced the home supporters after the match leading the celebrations, he seemed to be relishing every moment. Which he fully merits. These spells do not happen often and should be relished.
